12-Jun-13: Sick of the war on terror. Oh, and also of being shot down out of the sky while flying somewhere.

One not-so-complicated way to permanently bring down
a civilian aircraft [Image Source]

Associated Press has been running a series of expose pieces in recent weeks, disclosing and analyzing the contents of thousands of pages of internal al-Qaida documents recovered in Timbuktu, Mali where a French military expedition has been fighting local Islamists - see our post "14-Jan-13: How do you say "proportionality" in French?"

The latest was published today. It focuses on the really disturbing disclosure that Islamist terrorists have gotten control of a stock of surface-to-air missiles capable of downing commercial airplanes.

It describes the discovery of what an expert calls "a ‘Dummies Guide to MANPADS'", the commonly used name given to the SA-7 weapons system. It says this is strong circumstantial evidence of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb having the missiles.

First introduced in the 1960s in the Soviet Union, the SA-7 was designed to be portable. Not much larger than a poster tube, it can be packed into a duffel bag and easily carried. It’s also affordable, with some SA-7s selling for as little as $5,000. Since 1975, at least 40 civilian aircraft have been hit by different types of MANPADS, causing about 28 crashes and more than 800 deaths around the world, according to the U.S. Department of State.

A digital version of what AP calls that Dummies Guide is online here.

Some extracts from the Washington Post: "Manual left behind in Mali suggests al-Qaida training to use feared surface-to-air missile"

• The United States was so worried about this particular weapon ending up in the hands of terrorists that the State Department set up a task force to track and destroy it as far back as 2006. In the spring of 2011, before the fighting in Tripoli had even stopped, a U.S. team flew to Libya to secure Gadhafi’s stockpile of thousands of heat-seeking, shoulder-fired missiles. By the time they got there, many had already been looted. “The MANPADS were specifically being sought out,” said Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, who catalogued missing weapons at dozens of munitions depots and often found nothing in the boxes labelled with the code for surface-to-air missiles... 
• The knowledge that the terrorists have the weapon has already changed the way the French are carrying out their five-month-old offensive in Mali. They are using more fighter jets rather than helicopters to fly above its range of 1.4 miles (2.3 kilometers) from the ground, even though that makes it harder to attack the jihadists. They are also making cargo planes land and take off more steeply to limit how long they are exposed, in line with similar practices in Iraq after an SA-14 hit the wing of a DHL cargo plane in 2003... 
• The SA-7 is an old generation model, which means most military planes now come equipped with a built-in protection mechanism against it. But that’s not the case for commercial planes, and the threat is greatest to civilian aviation.
• In Kenya in 2002, suspected Islamic extremists fired two SA-7s at a Boeing 757 carrying 271 vacationers back to Israel, but missed. Insurgents in Iraq used the weapons, and YouTube videos abound purporting to show Syrian rebels using the SA-7 to shoot down regime planes...
• “This is not a ‘Fire and forget’ weapon,” said Bruce Hoffman, director of the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University. “There’s a paradox here. One the one hand it’s not easy to use, but against any commercial aircraft there would be no defenses against them. It’s impossible to protect against it... If terrorists start training and learn how to use them, we’ll be in a lot of trouble.”
• ...“Even if you get your hands on an SA-7, it’s no guarantee of success,” he said. “However, if someone manages to take down a civilian aircraft, it’s hundreds of dead instantly. It’s a high impact, low-frequency event, and it sows a lot of fear.”

Just another little thing to think about when people like Peter Beinert over at the Daily Beast write, as he did yesterday

Obama was right: Americans are sick of the war on terror. We aren’t terrified anymore, and we’re no longer willing to sacrifice our freedoms.

For Beinert and anyone else wondering about how to quantify risk versus reward on this somewhat touchy issue, AP published a list today [here] of civilian planes shot down so far by MANPADS. If it's not relevant to you, just ignore.

30-Jan-13: In fighting terrorism, fear cannot be a substitute for moral clarity: Two political figures speak from personal experiences of terror

Trimble and Aznar [Image Source]

We posted here yesterday ["29-Jan-13: What their view on Hezbollah tells us about Europe's counter-terrorism strategy"] about the European Union's pusillanimous stance on banning one of the world's most dangerous and active terror organizations, Hezbollah.

The Times of London has a leading op ed column today written by two former political figures who have deep first-hand experience of terrorism. In their essay, entitled "Don’t mince words. Hezbollah are terrorists", José María Aznar who was was prime minister of Spain from 1996 until a few days after the Madrid railway massacre of 2004, and Lord Trimble, First Minister of Northern Ireland between 1998 and 2002 and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 1998, begin with the antithesis to yesterday's Guardian op ed about which we blogged last night: "29-Jan-13: Is the threat of terrorism greater now, or less?". They open with these words:

Jihadi terrorism is still alive and, as events in Mali and Algeria show us, poses a direct threat to us. The turmoil in North Africa reminds us that jihadism has no boundaries and that when confronting terrorism it is always better to prevent it rather than deal with its consequences. 

As we noted yesterday, the EU prefers not to face the reality of terrorism. Trimble and Aznar point to what is and is not being done about Hezbollah to make their case. About last summer's terrorist bombing in Bulgaria of a bus-load of Israelis, they point out that

despite this atrocity some European governments are not willing to declare Hezbollah a security threat and put it on the EU terrorist list. This refusal is based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the group. Hezbollah is not just a Lebanese militia group and political party. It is the long arm of Iran. From its conception by Tehran in 1982, it has been committed to the revolutionary goals of the international expansion of Shia Islam, as dreamt of by the Ayatollah Khomeini. The fact that it holds seats in the Lebanese Parliament and posts in the Cabinet does not mean that its leaders see themselves as just another Lebanese faction — albeit one that murders its political opponents (a UN tribunal found that the assassination of Rafic Hariri, the Lebanese Prime Minister was a Hezbollah plot). On the contrary Hezbollah has a global vision and reach. It has perpetrated attacks in places as distant as Argentina, Georgia, Israel, Thailand, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as Lebanon. It has been involved in illegal but very lucrative activities in Latin America and West Africa. 

They then address a dimension of this issue that often drives us crazy - the willingness of many to make an artificial distinction between the so-called "military wing" of terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and their political, charitable and who-knows-what-other front activities. People who think like that, say the authors, are wrong. Hezbollah is a single body and needs to be condemned and blacklisted in all its manifestations:

...Every part plays a role in the overall strategy. The leaders in charge of its hospitals and schools, the military leader and the political representatives all sit together under the secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. His deputy, Naim Qassem, was quoted as recently as October, saying: “We don’t have a military wing and a political wing. We don’t have the Party of Allah and the Party of Resistance. These differences do not exist and are rejected.” Hezbollah is committed to violent revolution. It sees itself as being in total confrontation with our way of life. The idea that engaging Hezbollah through the Lebanese political process and institutions would moderate it has proved to be a dangerous illusion. And today it is actively intervening in Syria on behalf of Bashar Assad; we will know soon about the atrocities conducted by its militants there... We know from our own experience in Spain and Northern Ireland that terrorism cannot be defeated unless you tackle all the tentacles that serve the purposes of the terrorists, and that includes the political and financial front organisations. Make no mistake — terrorist groups use all the means at their disposal to survive, flourish and achieve their plans.

About the claim by certain European governments that this is somehow not the right time to put Hezbollah on the EU terrorist list, they correctly ask:

But what more is needed to let us take such a decision? Official bodies, private research, parliamentary inquiries, one after another, have revealed the terrorist connections.

Addressing one of the reasons European states have held back from condemning Hezbollah, they write

We understand the caution of nations that have citizens living in Lebanon or peacekeeping troops deployed there. But fear cannot be a substitute for moral clarity. We need to remember that Unifil II (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) was deployed in 2006 to disarm Hezbollah, not to become its hostage... Hezbollah is already present and active on European soil; its illegal activities and networks cover the continent. It has shown that it is willing to strike in Europe. That is why European governments must move now to stigmatise Hezbollah and its activities, vision and goals.

What more must happen before that view is heard and comprehended?

14-Jan-13: How do you say "proportionality" in French?

"Activists" of the Ansar Dine activist group in August. activistically
introducing Islamist values to northern Mali [Image Source]

It's not every day that République du Mali makes global headlines but it did today. And we assume it's going to stay in the headlines for some time to come, even if most of us currently know next to nothing about the place or its people.

Briefly, it's in West Africa, locked in on all sides by Algeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Senegal and Mauritania. It covers about half a million square miles, has no sea shore, and is 90% Moslem. Economically, it depends on agriculture, including cotton production, and (yes) fishing from the Niger and Sénégal rivers, but also has significant underground resources: gold, uranium, and salt. Still, resources notwithstanding, half of Mali's population lives on less than $1.25 a day, which is the international poverty cut-off line [Wikipedia]. In fact, Mali is one of the poorest places on earth.

In the late 19th century, the empire builders of France grabbed control of Mali and added it to what was then called French Sudan. After a coup in 1991, it became a democratic, multi-party state and then a year ago, the serious conflict started. Northern Mali was seized by Islamist groups using the Al-Qaeda brand, and imposed what the French AFP newsagency calls "a brutal form of Islamic law". This seriously displeases the colonial power, so France has just deployed 500 of its troops there and has called in African forces mainly from states that used to be part of the French African empire who will be sending some hundreds of their own troops shortly: Niger, Senegal, Togo, Benin and (less French) Ghana. Nigeria will lead the intervention and provide around 600 men.

Even Australia is said to be preparing to get involved and as for European resources...

A planned 400-strong European Union military training mission is expected to be speeded up and launched by early February, but would not have a combat role, said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. France's intervention has been backed by the European Union, NATO and the United States, while Britain is providing logistical support in the form of transport planes. Germany said Monday it was considering ways to help France in its mission in Mali such as providing logistical, medical or humanitarian aid. [AFP] 

Now we don't have a problem understanding why people would want to fight back against Islamists who have grabbed control of a society. And especially when those Islamists have done the sort of grotesque things that Islamist terrorists do.

• Destroyed ancient shrines [CNN], once a major draw for Islamic scholars from around the world
• Banned music [CNN]
• Causing the public stoning death of a couple accused of having an affair [CNN]
• Cut off a man's hand as punishment for theft [BBC]
• Threatened artifacts in Timbuktu [BBC]
• Rapes and killings [BBC]

The U.N. Security Council authorized a peacekeeping mission in December 2012. Here are samples of what the news channels say about the French and their peacekeeping role:

• "Sixty Islamists were killed in Gao alone on Sunday, according to residents and a regional security source" [AFP]
• "These jihadists have suffered heavy losses with more than 100 deaths", Mali's Foreign Minister Tieman Hubert Coulibaly said today [AFP]
• French warplanes attacked rebel stockpiles of munitions and fuel today [AFP]
• The French captured Diabaly, 400km from the capital today [BBC]. 
• France's Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said today that his country's campaign was "developing favourably" [BBC]. On the other hand, French president Hollande said today that the militants are "better trained and armed than expected" [AFP].
• And "The Pentagon is now weighing a broad range of options to support the French effort, including enhanced intelligence-sharing and logistics support, but it is not considering sending American troops" [NY Times]

Now some indicators of what the Islamists have on their minds.

• "France has attacked Islam. We will strike at the heart of France" - Leader of MUJAO, the Movement for Unity & Jihad in West Africa, threatening France's interests in Bamako, the rest of Africa, and Europe [AFP]. MUJAO's strategy, as described by Al Jazeera, is "that they want Sharia law everywhere in the world..." and get their funding from Arab drug lords from the Gao area. 
• France had "opened the doors of hell" with its intervention and faced a situation "worse than Iraq, Afghanistan or Somalia" - another MUJAO leader Omar Ould ("Redbeard") Hamaha speaking on Radio Europe 1 [AFP]
• Concerning France's seven hostages held in Mali. "We will make a statement on the hostages today. From today all the mujahedeen are together." [AFP]

We ask: 

• Should "the international community" be outraged over what, on the face of it, seems to be a "heavily disproportionate" response?
• Is it significant at all that the BBC - which notoriously avoids using the word 'terrorist' whenever it reports on what the Islamic and Palestinian Arab terrorists do to Israelis - seems to have fewer qualms writing and quoting the word terrorists, with and without quotation marks, when they are Malian?

Just asking.