05-Dec-14: The 'real and substantial progress' of Iran, the US and the rest of us

Trust these people: they want what's best for all of us, we're certain of it.
Vienna, November 24, 2014, the day the world's ultimatum to the Iranians ran out...
and was extended by 7 months [Image Source]

Part of the inescapable reality of living in an era where terrorist organizations function, for most purposes, as sovereign rulers is that they can do some seriously deadly things, over a long period of time, and with impunity (at least within the borders they control). For people unfortunate enough to be at the receiving end of their malevolence, this can pose some ethical and strategic challenges. Here's a true-life example - unfortunately drawn from the true lives of us, our neighbours and everyone else living in our part of the world.

Ahead of the deadline some two weeks ago (November 24, 2014, to be exact) for agreement between the world's major countries and the Iranian regime on the so-called Joint Plan of Action, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (the IRGC) began making new and quite concrete threats: its missile unit has the capability to strike and destroy Israel, or any other target within Israel. The analysts at MEMRI, one of the few agencies that systematically translates and interprets what the Arabic and Persian-speaking parts of the world say to their own people, have just published a report about it here.

In it, they highlight the fact that Fars, an Iranian news agency closely tied to IRGC, is touting the capability of Hizbullah's Iranian missiles to damage Israel's natural gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as Israeli naval vessels. When Fars speaks, this is because the mullah-managed regime in Teheran wants us to know it. As Wikipedia says, Fars calls itself "Iran's leading independent news agency", but both CNN (here) and Reuters (here) - who know a thing or two about how news agencies work - describe it as "semi-official" and tied to Iran's government. The Wall Street Journal has said that Fars is in reality affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The head of the IRGC, Ali Jafari said this at a conference at an Iranian university on November 24, 2014: 

"Today, the entire area of the occupied territories [Israel] is within range of the missiles of the resistance – meaning the fall of the Zionist regime. Of course, the matter does not end here, and certainly the final liberation [of Palestine] will come about." [Source: Sepahnews.com via MEMRI]

His references to "the resistance" mean Hezbollah, Iran's captive Lebanese client.

The Iranian chart that graphs the coverage claimed by their long-range missiles.
Plainly no longer, if it ever was, a problem confronting Israel alone
[Image Source]

Fars at about the same time quoted Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the IRGC "Aerospace Force", and his deputy Majid Mousavi, saying Hezbollah now has Iranian missiles with a range of 300 km, This gives them the ability to hit anything they desire. Hajizadeh took the opportunity to clarify that Iran's IRGC and lebanon's Hezbollah are (in MEMRI's translation) "a single apparatus".

  

Is Israel the only target on the Iranian radar screens? Not by a very long shot. On November 17, 2014, another IRGC-affiliated news outlet Tasnimnews.com, posted a chart (here), that MEMRI has included in its report. This depicts graphically how those long-range Iranian missiles can - according to the Iranian boasts - hit targets 2,000 km away. This gives them access to anything they care to destory in 

Greece, southern Italy, [all of] southeast Europe, Turkey, the Caucasus, Central Asia and Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Gulf states... Israel and U.S. military bases in the region. [MEMRI]

MEMRI's report goes on to provide a detailed assessment of the Iranian missile capability, including its Sejil ballistic missiles (range: 2,000 km); Shahab 3, Qadr F and Qadr H missiles (1,350 km range), and the Hormuz, Zelzal "Raad 307" and Zelzal missile families (all 300 km range). It notes that elements of the Palestinian Arab terror infrastructure are already armed with Iranian missile technology. 

In Hajizadeh's words (thanks to MEMRI):

Today, our situation is good, and even the countries that once helped us, such as Syria, later purchased our missiles. Today, the missile workshops in Syria are Iran-built and manufacture missiles of Iranian design. In fact, we learned from them how to use [missiles], but [later] taught them how to make them. Syria's missile manufacturers have copied Iran. The resistance front has learned from Iran how to manufacture its missiles. [Both] Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Palestinian resistance have excellent missile capabilities, and [Iranian] missiles are widely found and have special status.

And last week (via another Fars interview), he added some poison icing to the Iranian cake 

Knowing Hizbullah's missile and drone capability as I do, I say that this capability today is so advanced that it is not comparable to Hizbullah's capability in the 2006 Lebanon war. The capability that the Palestinian resistance demonstrated in the most recent war that lasted 51 days [i.e. the July 2014 Gaza war] reflects only part of Hizbullah's capability... In the past, Hizbullah was dependent on us [i.e. Iran], but today it has progressed so much that sometimes we use its capabilities. If they [still] need our support, we will help them. In effect, the IRGC and Hizbullah are a single apparatus joined together, and according to what I know, they have no shortage of missiles and drones.

In the full text, he switches easily among three words that mean the same for him and for us: Jews, Zionists, Israelis. We ought to keep that in mind as we recall that the stand-off between the rest of the world's 5+1 group, and the Iranians reached a crisis on November 24, 2014... and then immediately slid into post-crisis phase:

On November 24 the nuclear talks with Iran were extended for an additional seven months, as Iran and six world powers failed for the second time to agree on the fate of that country’s nuclear effort.  The talks were first announced a year ago, and were extended for four months after their first deadline expired in July. During a press conference after the extension was announced, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said “we would be fools to walk away” from the talks, which he said “have made real and substantial progress.”  However, Secretary Kerry declined to describe that progress... Secretary Kerry also hailed this joint agreement, which Iran “has lived up to,” saying it “has worked” to make the world safer by extending rather than narrowing Iran’s breakout time. [IranWatch]

We're sure our leaders and those of the huge swathes of Asia and Europe covered by Iran's missile umbrella will be keeping Kerry's comforting words in mind in the coming weeks.