This Ongoing War: A Blog: 5-Jul-11: September 2011

Tuesday, July 05, 2011

5-Jul-11: September 2011 - how it's looking from here

From a report issued today by Pinhas Inbari, a senior policy analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs [full text online here]:

There are signs that the long period of quiet since the Second Intifada is going to end after September or just before it, and that Abbas' Fatah organization is already preparing for the "Third Intifada." Ahmad Abu Ruteima, a Hamas activist in Gaza, describes the objective of the Third Intifada: "The struggle is about the very existence of Israel and not about the 1967 borders. The defense minister, Ehud Barak, confirmed that the [Israeli] army is incapable of confronting a human influx from all directions." The post-September scenarios discussed in the upper Fatah echelons involve a return to the struggle. A senior member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, Hatem Abd al-Qader, noted that in case Israel obstructs the Palestinians' political plans, Abbas will step down, the PA will dissolve itself, and nothing will prevent the Palestinians from returning to the struggle. And even if elections are held, the new president will come from the younger generation, abolish the Oslo agreements, and lead the Palestinians back to the struggle.

Not mincing words, the report is called "What Are the Palestinians Planning after September?"

For visiting Martians and anyone else who has not been paying attention to the events of this ongoing war, those repeated references above to "the struggle" are a euphemism for a shooting/bombing war conducted by non-uniformed combatants and directed not at an army but explicitly at civilians: Israeli civilians.

Hatem Abd Al-Qadr has been speaking of "the struggle" for some time. In this MEMRI clip from an October 2010 Al-Jazeera TV interview, "I Don't Believe We Can Achieve Anything in the Negotiations Without Resistance" he expounds on what appears to be a favorite position.

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