15-Feb-17: Things Iran is good at

Genuflecting: The caption to this revealing Iranian news photo is: "Minister
of Communications and Information Technology Mahmoud Vaezi 
and the Swedish Minister of European Union Affairs and Trade Ann Linde
seen in this Feb 11 photo meeting in Tehran" [Image Source]

[This post, like a number of others before it, has been translated to Polish ("W czym Iran jest dobry") by courtesy of Malgorzata Koraszewska over on the Listy z naszego sadu website. Our sincere thanks to her, and great appreciation to readers of this blog in Poland.]

There are some striking photos in the news today and yesterday, showing Swedish political leaders - among them, self-avowed feminists - bowing their heads to men, the females donning hijabs and head scarves and generally conveying a sense of deep deference to the Islamist regime ruling Iran with an iron fist - a posture rarely seen in international affairs or among people espousing the views that the Swedes claim to hold dear.

Sweden's prime minister Stefan Löfven led the visiting delegation, and has come under angry criticism from opposition politicians and female rights among others.

“This is disastrous for what is being called a feminist foreign policy,” says Jan Bjorklund of the Liberal Party. According to him, the Swedish government should have demanded not to make the hijab compulsory for the female members of the delegation. And if Iran did not agree to that, then the trade agreements should have been signed in Sweden or a third country. The Swedish government calls itself the “first feminist government”, but Linde has defended her decision to wear the hijab in Iran, saying that the only other option would be to send an all-male delegation. Swedish companies have been lining up to gain access to Iran’s lucrative market after the lifting of international sanctions... ["Sweden defends officials wearing headscarves in Iran", Tehran Times, February 14, 2017]

The Swedish delegation to Iran has had a significant impact outside
Iran. The caption reads: "Sweden's "first feminist government" has been
called hypocritical for wearing the hijab in Tehran"
[Image Source: Screen grab from a Sydney Morning Herald video]

But Löfven would have been heartened by the local reception his team got. They were

greeted with praise from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who hailed the positive relationship between the two countries during a meeting with the Swedish premier in Tehran. "America and many European powers have played a role in causing traumatic events in Syria and Iraq, and the people of the region are aware of this interference and are rightly skeptical," Khamenei was quoted as saying by Iranian television... [Löfven] also met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani... who hailed the "moderation" in Sweden's foreign policy, ["Iran hails relations with Sweden during prime minister's visit to Tehran", DW (German State Radio), February 11, 2017]

The Swedes must have had the case of Dr. Ahmadreza Djalali on their minds while in Tehran. He's an academic physician born in Iran who has taught at universities in Belgium, Italy and Sweden. His field is disaster medicine and he traveled to Iran in April 2016 to take part in a professional conference. With no warning and without any warrant, Iranian Ministry of Intelligence officials arrested him there and charged him with “collaboration with enemy states”. The New York Times reported earlier this week [click] that he is being held in Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison and faces the death penalty. 

An image from last Saturday in Tehran that has already gone massively
viral: Swedish "feminist" government officials' walk of shame

Djalali's wife and two children live in Stockholm so the case has a higher profile there than in the countries where most of this blog's readers live. His wife is surely wondering what, if anything, those Swedish feminists did that was helpful to his cause during their well-publicized visit with the Mullahs. We were unable to find any reference to it in the media reports of the "feminist: visit to Iran, but we may have missed it.

For the past year, there's been a serious rush of vendor delegations from Europe, Asia and North America visiting, and showing extreme deference to, the Iranian regime along with an impressive flow of cross-border business deals with the Iranians [click here for a Google search results listing]. No doubt that this is a happy time for the people in charge of Iran.

But beyond the embarrassed faces and unmistakable humiliation of the visitors on show, there are significantly more disturbing next-moves emanating from the Iranian regime as flagged, for instance, yesterday by the Washington Times:

Iran’s hard-line Islamic regime has escalated its overseas terrorist operations, establishing a network of over a dozen internal training camps for foreign fighters, the regime’s largest resistance group said at a press conference on Tuesday in Washington. The National Council of Resistance of Iran issued its intelligence report specifying the camps’ locations and the countries represented... The council’s largest member is the People’s Mujahedeen of Iran (MEK). It boasts an extensive spy network inside the mullah-run government, including the all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its special forces wing, the Quds force, and has a track record of exposing clandestine parts of the Iranian national security apparatus.
The Quds force played a significant role in the Iraq War by training Iraqi Shiites on how to make bombs that killed scores of American troops. The Quds force is now directing thousands of Iraqi Shiite militia members in Iraq, some of whom have gone to Syria to fight for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The U.S. calls Iran the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terrorism. However, neither the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps nor the Quds force is on the State Department’s list of designated terrorist organizations. The Treasury Department in 2007 designated the Quds force as a material supporter of terrorism, but National Council of Resistance of Iran officials say the U.S. government should go much further.
“The Iranian resistance has emphasized on countless occasions that the source and the epicenter of terrorism, fundamentalism and regional meddling is the fundamentalist regime ruling Iran,” said Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the council’s Washington office. [“Iran growing network to train foreign terrorists, dissident group says”, Rowan Scarborough in Washington Times, February 14, 2017]

The Washington Times report goes on:

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has approved a directorate inside the Quds force “in order to expand its training of foreign mercenaries as part of the regime’s strategy to step up its meddling abroad, including in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, Afghanistan and elsewhere.” “The camps have been divided based on the nationality of the trainees and the type of training,” the council said. “Both terrorist training and also military training for militias are provided, enabling them to better infiltrate and advance the regime’s regional objectives.”

What skills can aspiring jihadists acquire under the Iranian auspices?

The training is divided into two types of courses; a crash-course of 45 days for troops that will be used to fight in paramilitary forces like the IRGC’s Basij force or a full training course which lasts from between 9 and 12 months... The full training course has many different sections: Heavy weaponry; Missile Launches; Marine Training; Theoretical Training (how to spend terror rhetoric); Survival Training; Commando Training; Paratrooper Training; Security Training... The report makes clear that the IRGC is in control of these terror training camps, in an attempt to export terrorism, destabilise other countries and take control in those countries. ["IRAN’S  IRGC’S TERROR TRAINING CAMPS REVEALED", Iran News Update,., February 15, 2017]

Here's something else the Iranians know to do well: fomenting yet more mischief in Gaza. It stems from the choice of a seasoned murdering terrorist to become the new head of Hamas in Gaza [we analyzed this here: "13-Feb-17: Another Shalit Deal milestone: Four terms of life imprisonment but this murdering jihadist now heads Hamas in Gaza"]

The implication of the selection means that Iran has retaken the reins in Gaza after a long hiatus during which Egypt, on one hand, and Turkey and Qatar, on the other, tried to fill the vacuum. Iran chose to take back the reins in Gaza because of the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.  Iran fears that in the upcoming talks in Washington, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu will discuss an aggressive option vis-à-vis Iran. It is doubtful if any “elections” were held in Gaza to choose Sinwar. The result is due to pressure by Hamas’ military wing on the political wing, and the announcement’s timing is Iran’s way of conveying a message before the Trump-Netanyahu talks. If that’s the case, don’t expect that Sinwar’s “election” foretells a new escalation from Gaza against Israel. Just the opposite, Iran will restrain Hamas in order to keep the Gaza front available for Iran’s own needs, and Iran’s alone. ["Iran Grabs the Reins in Gaza", Pinhas Inbari, JCPA, February 14, 2017]

Velayati on Aljazeera this past week [Image Source]

In the interests of fairness, we will point out that Iran does have its fans, and the Iranians don't necessarily see themselves as being the bad guys or in any great trouble. You can get a sense of that deep Persian self-appreciation from published pieces like "World owes Iran debt of gratitude for sacrifices in fight against terror" [PressTV, February 13, 2017] and "Lavrov: Exclusion of Iran from anti-terror coalition is a mistake" [Tehran Times, February 12, 2017].

Also this: Iran doesn't see any reason to discontinue its rapid development of long-range offensive missiles [reviewed here two weeks ago]. As Ali Akbar Velayati (a former Iranian foreign minister and today Supreme Leader Khamenei's Advisor on International Affairs) said three days ago in an Al-Jazeera television interview [translated into English by MEMRI here]:

"If America imagines that threats and sanctions will lead Iran to stop its missile program, this is a misconception, a mere fantasy... America is not strong enough to bring us to our knees... Mr. Trump is fickle and changes his policies every other day... Running a country like America is not an easy thing. All of Trump's predecessors faced similar problems. The most important things is that he has failed, especially with us in Iran. Mr. Trump does not possess special qualifications that would enable him to claim that he wants to take over the world. His policies are immature and have led him to a confrontation with the whole world"

This sounds like bluster - something the Iranians are also good at - but it's more serious than customary bluster given the threats that have emanated from Iranian leaders at various points since the JCPOA, the infamous unsigned "agreement" that has brought such unearned benefits to Iran, came into effect. For instance, this comment which we quoted in an earlier post ["28-Jun-16: Is Iran now threatening more nuclear plotting?"]

Discussing what president Obama has called snapback and "real consequences"] "Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the country will be able to “immediately” reverse its commitments under a final nuclear deal with world powers if it finds out that the other side has breached commitments under the [JCPOA]... Whenever Iran feels the other side has not honored its commitments, the “reversibility” of Tehran’s nuclear program will happen immediately, he said." [Tasnim News Agency, Iran, July 28, 2015]

We think they're good at that sort of thing too.

02-Feb-17: What's the US view of Iran's friendly-ties initiative and the nuclear-capable rockets it doesn't plan to use?

Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif [Image Source] There's

probably a simple reason for why he's laughing in so many

published news photos

There's some elaborate dancing going on as the US, Iran and Hamas make efforts to explain their relations with each another.

From a disturbing Reuters report published this afternoon:

Iran has tested a cruise missile called "Sumar" that is capable of carrying nuclear weapons in addition to test-firing a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday, German newspaper Die Welt reported Thursday, citing unspecified intelligence sources... The newspaper said the Sumar cruise missile was built in Iran and traveled around 600 km in its first known successful test. The missile is believed to be capable of carrying nuclear weapons and may have a range of 2,000 to 3,000 km, the paper said, citing intelligence sources... [T]he biggest advantage from Iran's point of view, a security expert told Die Welt, was that cruise missiles are not mentioned in any United Nations resolutions that ban work on ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons... Iran confirmed on Wednesday that it had test-fired a new ballistic missile, but said the test did not breach the Islamic Republic's nuclear agreement with world powers or a U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing the pact.

A nuclear agreement? As we (and others) keep saying there is no nuclear agreement. That's because the astoundingly ineffective JCPOA was never signed by the Iranians - deliberately. See "09-Sep-15: Figuring out what people have figured out about Iran and its nuclear plans" where we explain ourselves. But that's the undoubted bottom line: despite all the reportorial and editorial claims to the contrary, there is no signed agreement with Iran on its nuclear weapons program. And there almost certainly never will be.

What did happen, as the Reuters piece recounts, is that massive sanctions on the Iranians were lifted in January 2016 under the JCPOA in exchange for their agreeing to curb - such an ambiguous term - the Iranian nuclear program.

But according to the terms of a 2015 U.N. resolution endorsing the JCPOA, Iran

is still called upon to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years. [Reuters]

Aren't they the same as cruise missiles? No.

Cruise missiles are harder to counter than ballistic missiles since they fly at lower altitudes and can evade enemy radar, confounding missile defense missiles and hitting targets deep inside an opponent's territory... [Reuters]

Also yesterday, President Trump’s national security adviser announced in Washington that the US is putting Iran "on notice" for its ballistic missile test and warning of new sanctions:

Calling Iran a “destabilizing influence” in the Middle East, National Security Adviser Mike Flynn declared Wednesday: “As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.” The pronouncement marked a pivot away from the Obama administration’s policy of diplomatic engagement, which led to a 2015 multinational nuclear deal that has been denounced repeatedly by President Donald Trump and his aides. Iran has warned that new U.S. sanctions could constitute a violation of the nuclear deal, setting up a scenario in which the agreement could unravel—something that hardliners in both countries would welcome. Administration officials, while providing few specifics, said Mr. Trump has begun a process of reviewing current U.S. policy and is “considering a whole range of options,” including tougher sanctions. Asked if military force also was one of the options, the officials didn’t rule it out... “The important thing is here is that we’re communicating that Iranian behavior needs to be rethought by Tehran,” one senior official said. “That is something Tehran needs to think through, because we are considering these things in a different perspective.” Mr. Flynn said the latest missile launch was a violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the nuclear deal and “called upon” Iran to avoid any activity related to missiles designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. ["Trump White House Puts Iran ‘On Notice’ After Missile Launch", Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2017

Iran's propaganda machine didn't see things that way and had already pushed back by Wednesday evening via FARS (often called a "semi-official" news agency of the Iranian regime), asserting that Iran's

missile program is legal as per International Law, has nothing to do with the nuclear deal, and is non-negotiable...  [and that] Washington's latest cat-and-mouse games with Tehran... seeks pretexts to decrease international pressures and condemnations following their thoughtless decision to ban Muslims and Syrian refugees from travelling to the United States... Missile tests are Iran’s inalienable right to defend its security and interests. No country or international body can have any say in this regard... Over the past decade, Iran has made steady and gradual advances in its missile development, pursuing advancement of its strategic missile capabilities with incremental increases in range and payload technology. Iran is developing all these defense capabilities through international cooperation, legal purchases, and indigenous development. As per International Law, nothing is wrong with that. Nothing at all. ["A Risky Proposition: Is Iran Ready to Drop Missile Defense?", FARS News Agency, February 1, 2017] 

So to what extent do the Iranians now see themselves as having to comply with American wishes? The answer suggested by the FARS article is: not so much:

Whatever one thinks of Iran, it has no ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons – unlike the United States, Israel, and their NATO allies. But it is always under constant military threat... [E]very now and then, the bloodthirsty warmongers reveal the real reason for viewing an Iranian missile defense capacity as unacceptable: The war against Iran is a risky proposition. Iranian ballistic missiles and military capabilities would prevent the US from attacking Iran at will. What scares the US is Iranian armed forces that have combat experience and a fighting doctrine of their own, able to take advantage of local and geographic factors, and design their combat style outside the traditional American box. That is what’s intolerable. [FARS]

We might be hearing more in the coming days about how intolerable US policy seems to the Iranians. Iran was

among seven Muslim-majority countries whose citizens he barred from the U.S. in an executive order Friday the White House said is aimed at keeping terrorists from entering the country. [National Security Adviser] Flynn said agreements Iran has made with the Obama administration and the U.N. are “weak and ineffective.” “Instead of being thankful to the United States for these agreements, Iran is now feeling emboldened,” he said... The senior U.S. officials briefing reporters on Mr. Flynn’s comments said the president at the moment doesn’t want “to take any action that would foreclose options or unnecessarily contribute to a negative response.” They also sought to separate the nuclear deal from U.S. concerns about Iran’s other actions such as ballistic missile tests. Tehran has maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful power generation and research, and that its missiles are conventional and for defensive purposes. [Wall Street Journal again]

A few hours ago, Bahram Qassemi who speaks for Iran's Foreign Ministry told interested parties that Flynn’s claims are “baseless, repetitive and provocative”. His statements appear in a report on the oddly-named Iranian PressTV website [here]:

Qassemi further expressed regret that instead of expressing gratitude for the Iranian nation’s continued anti-terror struggles, the US administration keeps leveling groundless accusations and adopting unwise policies, which practically promote terrorist groups... [He] further slammed as “inappropriate and discriminatory” Washington’s recent ban on the entry of travelers from seven Muslim-majority nations as well as refugees into the US [and] stressed that the Islamic Republic's regional policies are transparent, expressing Tehran’s keenness to have friendly ties with all regional states based on mutual respect and non-interference in their domestic affairs. ["US claims on Iran missile tests baseless, provocative: Foreign Ministry", PressTV, February 2, 2017]

If you're wondering how "Friendly ties with all regional states" translates into action, the jihadists of Hamas might have an answer.

Sami Abu Zuhri who, in addition to being an advocate for the usefulness of human shields, a groper of women, a sexual molestor of visiting reporters, a fan of slashing praying Jews to death in their synagogues and a one-time smuggling "mule" [all explained here], is one of Hamas' official spokes-thugs. He visited Algeria last weekend and while there was quoted [here] saying Hamas is keen to build "strong relations with all Arab and Islamic states, including Iran". Without giving any details, he said “Efforts and contacts are underway to boost relations with Iran and we hope we will achieve something positive”.

From here in Jerusalem, something positive is not the most likely of the outcomes we're expecting to see.

27-Dec-15: Saturday's violence

Some background on two more Arab-on-Israeli attacks that marred the Sabbath day that ended last night.

IDF Square Jerusalem [Image Source: Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons]

In Jerusalem, at Kikar Zahal (IDF Square) close to the Old City's Jaffa Gate and a couple of minutes' walk from Safra Square, the compound where the municipality is headquartered, a Palestinian Arab aroused suspicions on the part of police officers who, in the words of Israel National News,

"approached him to investigate... At that point the terrorist whipped out a knife and tried to stab one of them, but the officers beat him to the draw and shot him, killing him at the site."

Haaretz adds that the would-be knife attacker "is mentally disabled" in the words of family members. It identifies him as

26-year-old Mussab Mahmoud Al-Razali from East Jerusalem. His uncle told Palestinian news agency WAFA that his nephew suffered from severe mental disabilities and even studied at the Nur Special Needs School.

The Huwara attack vehicle (via social media)

He attracted attention because "police noticed him following a pair of Jewish worshippers". Saturday morning is a time when thousands of Israeli Jews, as well as visitors, walk through Jaffa Gate to the Old City's Western Wall plaza. It's a route that gets heavy police attention because of the attraction it seems to hold for murder-minded jihadists.

Later in the day, a cluster of soldiers manning at a checkpoint near the Arab village of Huwara in Samaria came under vehicle-ramming attack. One, a young serviceperson of 20, was injured in the attack and taken to hospital with a suspected broken leg. Others opened fired and hit the Palestinian Arab attacker who later died of his injuries. Haaretz says his name is Maher al-Jabi, a male of 56.

News consumers who rely on the Arab news media will get the story more or less back-to-front as the headlines of two reports typical of the genre ["Palestinian dies from injuries in car ramming near Nablus" - Al Bawaba; "Another Palestinian shot dead by Israelis at Nablus checkpoint" - Press TV Iran] make clear. Ditto The Columbus Despatch which spins a syndicated Associated Press report with its own creative headline ["2 Palestinians killed in clashes"]

01-Dec-15: PA president: When the subject is terror, double-talk and blatant hypocrisy work

PA president Abbas tells the Climate Change conference in Paris
on Monday that Israel is to blame "for all the ecological problems
in the occupied Palestinian territories" [Source] 

Not for the first time, we owe a debt of gratitude to the people at Palestinian Media Watch. Without their monitoring and translating of Arabic-language materials emanating from the PA regime, most people would be left to believe what the autocratic Mahmoud Abbas (elected to a four-year term as PA president almost 11 years ago) says when speech-writers prepare his comments in the English language. His Arabic speeches are considerably more revealing.

A PMW bulletin issued today [here] throws valuable light on why no one in the Palestinian Authority leadership - and certainly not Abbas who controls it - has expressed condemnation, shock, horror or revulsion at the daily acts of violence against Israeli civilians that got into high gear at the end of September.

Out of one side of his mouth, the English-speaking side that finds its way into press releases and evening news programs, he declares his opposition to terror:

• Abbas "reiterated Palestine’s solidarity with the French people and sincere condolences to all countries affected by terrorism... We strongly condemn these terrorist and barbaric acts, which require genuine efforts to combat terrorism in all its forms and everywhere in the world." [Speech to this week's Climate Change conference in Paris, reported via Palestine National News]
• "[T]he PLO affirmed its choice of peace as a strategic option and of a solution resulting from negotiations, it firmly repudiated violence and affirmed an ethical, principled rejection of terrorism in all its forms..." [Speech to the UN General Assembly, September 26, 2013] 
• "The PLO and the Palestinian people adhere to the renouncement of violence and rejection and condemning of terrorism in all its forms..." [Speech to the UN General Assembly, September 23, 2011, submitting his bid for UN recognition of a Palestinian state - via WAFA News Agency, the official mouthpiece of the Palestinian Authority]

Leaves no doubt about his complete, total, wall-to-wall opposition to terror in all its forms, everywhere and forever.

Two weeks ago, speaking on official PA television, he said almost, more or less, practically the same thing. Except upside down. In PMW's words and Abbas':

• Referring to the current Palestinian terror uprising, which at the time of Abbas’ statement had already murdered 14 Israelis [more since then, tragically] Abbas announced on PA TV that it is a “peaceful uprising.”
• Abbas: “No one called for this uprising and no one asked for it. It stemmed from the hearts of the young... We said to everyone that we want peaceful popular uprising, and that’s what this is. That’s what this is. However, the aggression of firing bullets has come from the Israelis.” [Official PA TV, Nov. 16, 2015]
• PMW: According to Abbas, when Palestinians kill young Israeli parents in front of their children, kill Israeli teens, or kill Israeli fathers with their sons, it is not to be condemned as terror because it is an expression of “peace.” And therefore, when Israelis kill the stabbers and shooters who are trying to peacefully kill Israelis - it is the Israelis who are the “aggressors.”
• PMW: Significantly, Abbas openly admitted that he called “to everyone” for this violence: “We said to everyone that we want peaceful popular uprising, and that’s what this is. That’s what this is.”

• PMW continues: One of the many PA calls to Palestinians to participate in this so-called “peaceful uprising” that Abbas might have been referring to was his Sept. 16, 2015 speech “blessing the blood” spilled fighting to prevent Jews from “defiling” the Al-Aqsa Mosque with “their filthy feet” when going to the Temple Mount. This “defiling of an Islamic holy site” was the excuse used by the PA as trigger for this current terror campaign. Excerpt follows -
• "We bless every drop of blood that has been spilled for Jerusalem, which is clean and pure blood, blood spilled for Allah, Allah willing. Every Martyr (Shahid) will reach Paradise, and everyone wounded will be rewarded by Allah... The Al-Aqsa [Mosque] is ours and they have no right to defile it with their filthy feet. We will not allow them to, and we will do everything in our power to protect Jerusalem." [Official PA TV, Sept. 16, 2015] 
• Neither one to shy away from public demonstrations of rank hypocrisy, Abbas has taken several opportunities during these past two months of blood-letting attacks by his people - many of them children and women - to express solidarity and support for the victims of terror... in other places: France, Russia, Lebanon and Jordan. 
• From another source - the Iranian mouthpiece with the strange name, PressTV - there's this gem of selective jihad-friendly outrage: "Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned “the horrific events” in Paris and expressed sympathy and solidarity with the French people and government. “We condemn it in the strongest terms and we hope that this region can get rid of terror and the terrorists,” said Abbas, calling on all nations to “collaborate in the fight against terror... Terror has no religion nor a nation or a loyalty to one, whatever this terror maybe it is condemned by us and we stand against it all the way.”
• From the same source: ""Chief Palestinian Negotiator Saeb Erekat also denounced the assaults as “criminal and murderous,” adding that these acts have nothing to do with Islam."
• PMW [here] reminds us that throughout these two months, "Abbas has not condemned even one attack" by Palestinian Arabs against Israelis. 

Where, in any mainstream news reporting or analysis, have we seen these points made?

16-Nov-15: The terror in Paris: An odd and disturbing view from Stockholm

The most hunted terrorist in Europe, in a 2014 video clip from
the midst of the Syrian bloodbath [Image Source: MEMRI]

A year ago, Sweden's foreign minister Margot Wallström went to Cairo. It was her first official visit to anywhere outside the EU.

Sweden was one of about fifty countries represented in a conference that sought to figure out how to rebuild Gaza in the wake of the destructive 2014 war between the Hamas Islamist regime and Israel and to collect money for that purpose. (Israel has a vital interest in seeing things get better in Gaza but understands that for deplorable reasons this is not going to happen under Hamas.)

We know now the Cairo conference was not the biggest of successes: the Iranian mouthpiece PressTV reported half a year later ["No home rebuilt in Gaza after 2014 Israel war: UNRWA", April 23, 2015] that things were barely moving. According to Chris Gunness of UNRWA, his agency had gotten funding that barely enabled it "to reconstruct 200 of the 9,161 houses totally destroyed." What a mess.

But not for Ms Wallström. She got back to Stockholm quite pumped up, reporting in an interview to Radio Sweden [here] that Sweden was hailed by the Palestinian Arabs as

"heroes... [because] we plan to recognise the Palestinian state. That is why we are placed in a category of heroes here... They are very pleased and hope this will inspire others. One also believes it is courageous of us to lead the way and so have been very well received."

It's easy to imagine Ms Wallström getting a kick from the sort of attention she received in Cairo. On the whole, 2015 has not been a fun year for her and her ministry. Fawning attention, as well as admiration and respect, have been in short supply. This is particularly true of its (and her) broader Middle East strategy. Even we ripped into it - see "20-Mar-15: A peek into how Middle East politics work in reality". Fair warning: don't read it if you're looking for flattering observations about Sweden's foreign minister.

Friday night's Swedish TV interview with the country's
hapless foreign minister [Image Source: Screen Capture]

Now, in the wake of Friday night's horrific terrorism inflicted on Paris, we get a sense of where that uplifting feeling of being someone's hero has brought Margot Wallström and the government in whose name she speaks. 

This past Friday night, she was interviewed on SVT2T, a Swedish television station, mere hours after the ISIS attacks on multiple Paris venues that left more than 130 dead, hundreds more injured and a great city in deep shock and bewilderment. Asked if she was concerned about the radicalization of Swedish youth including those who fight with Islamic State, she said there was cause for concern, not only in Sweden but everywhere. And an underlying cause:

"To counteract the radicalization [in Europe]," Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallström said in a televised interview only hours after the Paris attacks, "we must go back to the situation such as the one in the Middle East in which... the Palestinians see that there is no future. We must either accept a desperate situation or resort to violence." [Wall St Journal]

(A special shout-out to David Metzler, a Swedish-speaking Jerusalemite whose blog post on the Times of Israel site [Justifying Paris] first drew attention yesterday to the stunning Wallström rationalization for Islamist mass-casualty terror.)

Israel's foreign ministry responded with a scathing announcement earlier today. It manages not to mention Ms Wallström by name, heightening (we think) the impression that in Jerusalem it's seen as personal:

The Swedish foreign minister has consistently demonstrated bias against Israel and exhibits genuine hostility when she indicates a connection of any kind between the terrorist attacks in Paris and the complex situation between Israel and the Palestinians... Whoever fatuously attempts to create a link between radical Islamist attacks and the current problems between Israel and the Palestinians is fooling himself, his people and international public opinion. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jerusalem - November 16, 2015]

Fatah's sickening view: No need for Arabic-to-English translation

It would be unkind, too simple and, in a serious way, misleading to treat the Wallström formulation (Middle East situation = desperation or violence = Paris restaurant patrons are machine-gunned) as constituting a moment of Swedish madness. 

In fact, it meshes with the line currently taken by the Palestinian Authority. The Facebook page of Fatah, whose head is the PA president Mahmoud Abbas, advances the case that it was Israel that played the key enabling role in the shootings and bombings in Paris, when it published a cartoon (that's it over on the right) depicting

a conniving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu overlooking Paris with a telescope beside a smiling ISIS terrorist wielding an assault rifle. [The Investigative Project, today]

It gets even more explicit. It's reported today that a featured op-ed in the Palestinian Authority's official daily newspaper, Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, says the Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency, orchestrated Friday night's Paris massacres.

Sweden's foreign minister may have been having a very bad Friday. Or she may actually believe the counter-factual and deeply offensive "explanations" she offers for the ISIS savagery in France. We're not sure. But there's little doubt her views do pretty accurately reflect those of large numbers of people.

Something about which we have no doubt is that she will have failed to persuade - and does not represent - Abdelhamid Abaaoud. He's the jihadist suspected by French authorities of masterminding Friday's attacks in Paris:

Abaaoud, who uses the nom de guerre Abu Umar al-Baljiki, has been on the run since police stormed a jihadist cell in the eastern Belgian town of Verviers in January... Abaaoud is from Molenbeek, a poor district in Brussels, in which at least one of the Paris attackers and a number of people arrested in subsequent raids had spent time... In an interview with IS's online magazine, Dabiq, in February, Abaaoud said he had recently arrived in the group's self-declared caliphate after fleeing Europe following the raids in Verviers. [ABC Online, today]

In a MEMRI video clip from March 2014 [online here], Abaaoud delivers a monologue from a trench in Syria, stating that it is "nice to see... the blood of the infidels". He makes no mention of Israel, Palestine or desperation. He does however ask rhetorically "What can be sweeter than martyrdom in the path of Allah?"

It would be a mistake to dismiss this lust for death and blood as among the reasons young European Moslems are making their way to the killing fields of Syria. And from there to the boulevards and cafes of Paris.

Most of us have our own ways of feeling good about ourselves and life. We now know something about what brightens the Swedish foreign minister's mood, and the same for Europe's most hunted Islamist. Each, in his and her own way, is delusional and simplistic. Each undermines the logic of the other, but the views of both are, in the end, marginal. When it comes to the lethal dangers of terror, the rest of us - and our political leaders - cannot afford to be sucked in by self-serving ideological cant.

02-Sep-15: Plans of action and how Iran thinks like some Washington lobbyists do

Senator Mikulski looks on as President Obama signs an important document
that is certainly not an agreement with Iran since that has not been
signed by anyone [Archive photo source]

There are distinct whoops of triumph emanating from Washington today as Barbara Ann Mikulski, the senior Senator from Maryland, a member of the Democratic Party, steps forward to express support for the intentionally-unsigned pact ["29-Jul-15: Built not on trust but on... verification"] that the Islamic Republic of Iran entered into with the United States and some other countries a little over a month ago.

The significance of today's news:

The announcement means that at least 34 senators -- the number required by the Constitution to sustain a veto -- will back Obama's expected veto of a Republican resolution to disapprove of the deal. Mikulski is retiring at the end of her term. [CNN, September 2, 2015]

Now that a third of the Senate have told the news services how they are going to vote on probably the most important US foreign policy undertaking in living memory, the very carefully named JCPOA (not an agreement, not a treaty, just a plan of action) is being treated by everyone as a done deal, some sort of democratic achievement (or is it Democratic achievement?)

Everyone, we assume, thinks that having committed themselves publicly, none of these politicians will back down when the vote is taken in Congress in a few weeks' time, no matter what facts or additional secret side-deals may get revealed or brought to their attention in the meantime. Politics.

The head of a high-profile political lobbying group closely identified with the Obama administration emailed several friends of ours in the past couple of hours with a victory letter that includes this puzzling assertion:

Extract from a letter sent by this lobbying organization to supporters earlier today

It's clear that Jeremy Ben Ami, the author of those stirring words and the leader of the J Street people, is speaking of the Middle East. But even when you take account that he is sitting in far off, well-protected Washington DC, which part of the Middle East does he have in mind? He knows of some corner that has been transformed, presumably far from people's attention and news media enquiries, into a place where conflicts are being settled "through negotiations and diplomacy"? Does he mean Syria? Maybe Yemen? Libya? Iraq? Lebanon? We really do want to know.

Could he have composed this right after the celebratory toasts were drunk?

As it happens, Iran believes in plans of action, including the one the US Senate appears to have just pushed over the top. A report published today by the oddly-named PressTV, one of the Islamic Republic's numerous official, semi-official and regime-controlled mouthpieces, shows (see it below) that the Iranians actually think very similarly to some Americans. 

Or at least to Mr Ben Ami and his J Street crowd.

Iranian mouthpiece leads with this report today [Source]

But much, much more significantly, here's how some other Iranians see things. This is also from today.

Escalating Iran’s rhetoric against Israel, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps vowed Wednesday that the regime would boost its military capabilities relentlessly until Israel was destroyed. “The Islamic Revolution will continue enhancing its preparedness until it overthrows Israel and liberates Palestine,” the IRGC’s Tehran province commander, Brigadier General Mohsen Kazzemeini, said in an address in Tehran, the semi-state Fars news agency reported. He also vowed that Iran would maintain its aid to those who fight Israel. "We will continue defending not just our own country, but also all the oppressed people of the world, specially those countries that are standing on the forefront of confrontation with the Zionists..."
In its report on Gen. Kazzemeini’s speech Wednesday, Fars recalled that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in an address to Tehran students last year, called for the “full annihilation and destruction of the Zionist regime.” On Tuesday, the commander of IRGC, Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, threatened Israel, saying “its security will not be preserved” and asserting that the dangers posed to Israel were “growing greater by the day.”

The FARS source article ["Commander: Iran Continues Military Enhancement Until Collapse of Israel"] went online a couple of hours ago, just after the Mikulski announcement, by coincidence. Or not.

We think that neither a J Street response, nor any other meaningful plan of action emanating from Washington to address the naked threats of mass destruction by the nuclear-thirsting Iranians ought to be expected anytime soon. Or ever.

03-May-15: Israel sees concrete signs of a terror threat in Tunisia while the government there says it's actually nothing

These Jewish visitors to Tunisia feature prominently in the Iranian
media report today (see below) that makes fun of Israel's warning about
a terrorist danger while actually confirming just how real the danger is
[Image Source: Iran's PressTV]

There are reports in today's news about Israeli warnings to travelers about the coming days, which include the joyous festival of Lag B'Omer, and focus on Tunisia in particular.

Just why this is, and why the reports are so little understood by parts of the foreign news media, are matters worth exploring. So is the somewhat bizarre way the Iranians, up to their eyebrows in supporting and funding terror against Jews, Israelis and a host of others around the world, deny the danger while confirming (wittingly or unintentionally) how real it is.

First, who issued the warning? Israel's National Security Council. It's part of the Prime Minister's Office, a government department located in Jerusalem on the same street as the Foreign Ministry with a comprehensive Hebrew website (here) and an English-language on-line presence (here) that is comically bad: hopelessly out-dated, expressed in fractured English, and containing virtually nothing useful.

The NSC is widely quoted in the news though the scope of its authority has been called "vague". The Prime Minister [according to Wikipedia]

is not obligated to accept its recommendations, unlike with those of the Attorney General, for example.

One of its three wings is called the Counter-Terrorism Bureau (the other two deal with security policy and with foreign policy). The CTB is said to have its headquarters inside the NSC center in Ramat Hasharon, in Tel Aviv's northern suburbs.

The CTB is making small headlines today, having issued a travel alert last night (Saturday night) warning Israelis to give Tunisia a miss

following "updated information" on terror plots, with an emphasis on the Lag Baomer holiday which takes place on Thursday. Tunisian Jews, and other Jews visiting the North African country, traditionally celebrate the Hilula festival of Rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai on Lag Baomer. The Counter-Terrorism Bureau said a Level 2 alert, meaning a concrete and high threat is in place, has been issued for the country, adding, "The recommendation is to avoid visiting Tunisia"... The Bureau issued a total of 27 travel alerts, in addition to six enemy states that Israelis are banned by law from visiting, and eight regions that are subject to a variety of advisories... [A]head of Lag Ba’omer... it named Tunisia as a country that could see additional attacks. [Jerusalem Post, today]

How surprising is that? Not very. Just six weeks ago, we reported here ["19-Mar-15: In Tunisia, terrorists target tourists... again"] on a

murderous attack by terrorists in broad daylight yesterday (Wednesday) [that] left at least 19 people killed on the streets of Tunis, the capital of Tunisia... The president of Tunisia says his country will now fight terrorism "without mercy", according to the BBC. 

We also took the opportunity to note how Tunisia's own government spokespeople, starting with its newly-elected prime minister Habib Essid, urged "national unity", calling the massacre "the first operation of its kind ever to occur in Tunisia". That sounded wrong to us:

The first? That's true only if we ignore (and ignore is exactly what most parts of the news media are doing) the April 11, 2002 Djerba synagogue bombing in which terrorists operating on behalf of Al Qaeda deployed a human bomb and a truck full of explosives to attack people, most of them tourists, visiting a historically-significant (and exceptionally beautiful) Tunisian synagogue. The death toll was heavy: 14 German tourists, 3 Tunisians, 2 French. [Source]

The Israeli government's travel advisory issued last night that
focuses on the dangers of visiting Tunisia specifically [Online here]

As we said, that was six weeks ago.

Today, in the wake of the Israeli travel advisory, the government in Tunis is back in insistent denial mode:

The Tunisian government on Saturday shrugged off a warning from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel had learned of "concrete threats" of terror attacks against Jewish or Israeli targets in the Arab country. "Information indicates that there are plans for terrorist attacks against Israelis or Jews in Tunisia," a statement from Netanyahu's office said, urging Jews not to visit Tunisia during the Lag BaOmer Jewish festival, which will be celebrated on May 7. A senior official in the Tunisian interior ministry told Agence France-Presse that no such threats existed. "We have nothing on that. There are no threats," the unnamed official said. Thousands of pilgrims visit the tombs of famous rabbis for Lag BaOmer, including on Tunisia's holiday island of Djerba, where one of the last Jewish communities in the Arab world still lives. Several thousand Jews from France and Israel make the trip to the island every year, where 19 people died in an attack on the ancient El Ghriba synagogue in 2002 blamed on Al-Qaeda. Tunisia has been trying to reassure foreign visitors they will be safe since 21 tourists were killed in a jihadist attack on the Bardo National Museum in Tunis in March. ["Tunisia rebuffs Netanyahu’s terror warning" | Al-Arabiya, today]

The joy of Lag B'Omer in the ancient Tunisian synagogue, Djerba 1960
[Image Source: The invaluable Israel Picture a Day website]

An AFP report today, referring to the synagogue on Djerba that has attracted Jewish tourists to Tunisia for generations, adds:

The Tunisian interior ministry official insisted the police and army were ready to ensure security. "All measures have been taken... to ensure the success of the pilgrimage to El Ghriba," the official said.

Now for anyone thinking Israel's approach seems contrived or excessively cautious, let's compare it with what the British government says in its online travel advisory for Tunisia this morning:

There is a high threat from terrorism, including kidnapping. A terrorist attack took place at the Bardo Museum in the centre of Tunis on 18 March. Twenty-one tourists were killed, including a British national. Tunisian security forces continue to carry out counter terrorist operations following this incident. Terrorists continue to threaten attacks in Tunisia and the Ministry of Interior has previously warned of threats to industrial and tourist sites. Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places visited by foreigners. You should be especially vigilant at this time and follow the advice of Tunisian security authorities and your tour operator. Terrorist attacks have increased in Tunisia since 2013. In October 2013, there were failed attacks at a hotel in Sousse and the Bourguiba Museum in Monastir. Since then, members of the Tunisian security forces have been targeted in terrorist-related incidents at various locations, mainly near border areas including in the Chaambi Mountains. There is considered to be a heightened threat of terrorist attack globally against UK interests and British nationals, from groups or individuals motivated by the conflict in Iraq and Syria. You should be vigilant at this time. Keep up to date with this travel advice, and follow the advice of the local authorities and your tour operator. [UK Travel Advisory | Tunisia | Updated to May 3, 2015]

Now for the Iranian view via a PressTV report from this morning:

In an apparent publicity campaign to portray Jews as victimized, the Israeli regime said earlier in the day that there were “concrete threats” of attacks against “Jewish and Israeli targets” in Tunisia. The office of Israel’s hawkish Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a Saturday statement, "Information indicates that there are plans for terrorist attacks against Israelis or Jews in Tunisia." The statement further claimed that the threats are connected to the Lag BaOmer Jewish festival in the country, urging “Jews” not to travel to Tunisia for the May 6 event... Meanwhile, the Israeli regime has issued a number of false claims of potential terror attacks against Israeli or Jewish targets around the globe aimed at showing that Jewish communities are under persisting and increased threats in order to encourage Jews to immigrate to occupied Palestinian territories... The people of Tunisia, the birthplace of pro-democracy protests across North Africa and the Middle East, revolted against the Western-backed dictator, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. Despite the recent political stability, insurgency and terrorist activities still threaten the North African country. [Iran's PressTV today]

Clear now?

Let's hope (and pray) the Tunisians are right and that there are "no threats". And let's also hope that when they say "We have nothing on that", they actually mean

"We checked, we professionally reviewed all our sources, we set politics aside, we phoned the Israelis and asked them to tell us what they know about terrorism here in Tunisia and having given it our very best shot, we have concluded - as if lives depended on it - that the Israeli concern amounts to nothing."

For anyone interested in what the Israeli government actually said about Tunisia last night, it's online at this Hebrew-only page. Here's our unofficial translation:

Tunisia | High-level concrete threat | It emerges on the basis of updated information that there is an intention to carry out terror attacks (piguim) against Israeli and Jewish targets in Tunisia, with an emphasis on the Lag B'Omer events and those attending them. The Counter Terrorism Bureau recommends to refrain from visiting, and to leave the state (Tunisia) as quickly as possible.
The CTB clarifies that the foregoing travel advisory is a recommendation only and the decision to visit or stay in any place outside Israel is a matter for the personal discretion of every individual, and his/her exclusive responsibility, taking into account the significance of the travel advisory, other dangers apart from the dangers of terror, and awareness of the requirements of Israeli law.

And for the record, we don't plan to include Tunisia in any upcoming travel.

17-Jun-13: In Iran, who is moderate, why, and what does it mean?

Naharnet: Moderate not once, but twice. At least.

There are some mighty optimistic messages going out this weekend about political changes in Iran. See Reuters for instance: "Analysis: Iran moderate's poll triumph is mandate for change", and "Hasan Rowhani, moderate cleric, pulls off Iranian election win" from CBS News.

From a considerably more sober place, the Wall Street Journal carried an op ed yesterday called "Behind Iran's 'Moderate' New Leader | Hassan Rohani unleashed attacks on pro-democracy student protesters in 1999", written by Sohrab Ahmari, an Iranian-American who is the paper's assistant books editor. Key excerpt:

So this is what democracy looks like in a theocratic dictatorship. Iran's presidential campaign season kicked off last month when an unelected body of 12 Islamic jurists disqualified more than 600 candidates. Women were automatically out; so were Iranian Christians, Jews and even Sunni Muslims. The rest were purged for possessing insufficient revolutionary zeal. Regime loyalist Hassan Rowhani, 64, a former nuclear negotiator and security apparatchik, served for 16 years as secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. During his tenure, Rowhani led the crackdown on a 1999 student uprising and helped the regime evade Western scrutiny of its nuclear-weapons program. During the campaign, he boasted of how during his tenure as negotiator Iran didn't suspend enrichment - on the contrary, "we completed the program." 

Some moderate. Some reformer.

As to how much power we ought to credit to the new man, it's worth bearing in mind how the mainstream media worked hard these past few years telling us that the previous president (that would be Ahmadinejad) really had very little substantive power, and that control was actually with "supreme leader" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. See for instance "Ahmadinejad is noisy, but look behind him to find real power in Iran" from the NY Times in 2007. Note to editors: Khamenei continues to wield today no less power than he and his predecessors had then.

And here's a conundrum. A month ago, the only news outlet calling Rowhani moderate was Iran's own notorious state-controlled PressTV (here, for instance). What did they know that no one else does? And why is everyone now lined up behind their view? Stay tuned.

31-Oct-12: US confirms convictions of white-collar terrorists

Lingering doubts that remained about the criminality of the organization frequently called the United States' "largest Islamic charity" [NY Times] ended on Monday. That's when the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that it would not overturn an earlier appeal that went against five officials from Holy Land Foundation convicted of illegally funneling millions of dollars to Hamas. That appears to be the final legal avenue open to the convicted men and concludes the case.

For years, in a pattern which to some of us is already familiar, the supporters of the convicts and their lawyers cast the Holy Land Foundation as being, at minimum, the victim of the extreme angst that afflicted the US after the events of September 11, 2001, as well as "an important case for religious freedom, and for civil rights" [The American Muslim]. The group "merely raised money for needy Palestinians", it has been argued, and was never connected to any violence.

America's tribunals of law and fact, one after another, came to a different conclusion. As a result, Ghassan Elashi, Shukri Abu-Baker, Mohammad El-Mezain, Mufid Abdulqader and Abdulrahman Odeh were convicted on 108 counts in 2008 and will remain in prison serving sentences ranging from 15 to 65 years. 

Just in passing, a reminder that Mufid Abdulqader is the brother of arch-terrorist Khaled Mashaal, "the main leader" [Wikipedia] of Hamas' terrorist operations since 2004.

The fragrantly-named Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development started life as the Occupied Land Fund [US Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control, "Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List", updated to October 18, 2012], from offices in Richardson, Texas. In 2007, US federal prosecutors charged the organization and its key leaders with funding Hamas and what it termed other "Islamic terrorist organizations". Soon afterwards, the assets of the "charity" were frozen by the EU and the US, and it was forced to shut down. AFP's November 2008 report of the criminal trial [AFP] said the group and its leaders were found to be "acting as a front for Palestinian militants" and called the trial "largest terrorism financing prosecution in American history".

Far from being an innocent conduit for relieving the poverty of starving children in Gaza, U.S. District Judge Jorge Solis who presided over the criminal trial said it plainly: 

"The purpose of creating the Holy Land Foundation was as a fundraising arm for Hamas". The men charged and convicted were no mere givers of charity but knowing organizers of a conduit whose end-point was deliberate and well-chosen. The indictment said HLF and its promotors took steps to hide its terrorist-financing purpose from law-enforcement agencies by making a few token donations to harmless, non-Palestinian Arab entities. The bulk of it went to terror. A quote from one of the convicted men, Shukri Abu Baker: “We can give $100,000 to the Islamists and $5,000 to the others.”

Parts of the media in the US and outside it continue to frame this shabby tale in ways that seem calculated to sow doubt about the motivations of the convicted men and to hint at hidden agendas. In a Salon article this past Thursday, the popular website's "assistant news editor at Salon, covering non-electoral politics, general news and rabble-rousing" writes ["SCOTUS to consider fate of jailed Muslim charity leaders"] on what was done to the group formerly known as Occupied Land Fund:

"The Bush administration shut it down following reports that the group had donated a portion of their foundation funds to schools and hospitals in Gaza through a “Zakat” (charity-giving) Committee that allegedly had connections to Hamas."

Their case has made it all the way up the almost endless legal chain for which the US is rightly famous. Yet she and her editors see no problem in insinuating that this was about "alleged" connections to Hamas; that "portion" of the money was channeled to Hamas; that the US government acted on "reports". This is shamefully inadequate reporting from a source that describes itself as a "pioneering, award-winning news site... with an audience of 10 million monthly unique visitors".

We're less offended by the coverage given to the decision by one of the Iranian government's most prominent mouthpieces, PressTV. Its report ["US Supreme Court spurns justice"] describes the convicted men as 

"Five extraordinary human beings... wrongfully convicted and sentenced to long prison terms. They’re doing hard time in America’s gulag. They learned the hard way about being Muslims in America at the wrong time."

As Wikipedia describes, a large number of other parties - are they also "extraordinary"? - are caught up in the Hamas financing net, including prominent American Islamist groups: 

In May 2007, the U.S. filed an action against the Holy Land Foundation (the largest Muslim charity in the United States at the time for providing funds to Hamas, and federal prosecutors filed pleadings. Along with 300 other organizations, they listed CAIR (and its chairman emeritus, Omar Ahmad), Islamic Society of North America (largest Muslim umbrella organization in the United States), Muslim American Society and North American Islamic Trust as unindicted co-conspirators, a legal designation that can be employed for a variety of reasons including grants of immunity, pragmatic considerations, and evidentiary concerns. While being listed as co-conspirator does not mean that CAIR has been charged with anything...

From here, the evidence appears to show the existence of an active and thriving Moslem Brotherhood hinterland in the United States delivering political and financial support to the terrorists.