13-Jul-06: A hot summer shaping up

Lebanon's de facto army, Hezbullah, scores a significant military advance this morning when a missile despatched from Southern Lebanon but controlled from Beirut strikes a dwelling in the resort town of Nahariya. So far, we know of one woman killed in the attack; 12 others are reported injured. But we also know that several towns and kibbutzim (including such popular tourist destinations as Rosh Pina, Ayelet Hashahar and Kfar Hanasi) in the surrounding area have come under Lebanese missile attack in the past few hours. Some ten Katyushot already this morning according to Israel TV's Channel 10 report which we heard a few moments ago. Though tens of thousands of Israelis have been ordered to go to neighbourhood air-raid shelters, it seems inevitable that the casualty numbers are going to rise.

Hezbullah's strategy has, for years, been to target military targets so defined in its Mein Kampf blueprint, and it has prepared well for this current battle. (The illustration above purports to be an actual Hezbullah fighting unit, marching in Southern Lebanon. Go try to figure the mindset of these people.) In Hezbullah's book, military targets have long meant apartment buildings, single-family dwellings, supermarkets, kindergartens, holiday flats. Thousands of their Katyusha rockets are currently aimed at Israel, including (according to a Jerusalem Post report) hundreds of Fajar 5 rockets that can strike as far away as Haifa and Hadera. (Hard to know if this is right but the Israeli commentator speaking on the program that's on our TV just quoted a number for the total stock of their live missiles: 13,000!) Their goals are clear and unambiguous.

Having terror-minded regimes just over the back fence comes with some significant downsides. First, people tend to think that defending yourself against their attacks makes you part of a cycle of violence, and don't want to be bothered by the facts. Second, when the men with the poorly-managed rockets operate from civilian areas and fire into civilian areas, the victims on both sides tend to be civilians. And third, even though it's our side that has decisive - even overwhelming - military superiority, this counts for relatively little. This is because at every level, our society aspires to ethical standards (making this claim enrages the anti-semites, for those who haven't noticed, but it's true nevertheless) which effectively lead us to tie one of our arms behind our back while fighting with the other, all the while keeping an eye on the self-destructiveness of the pathetic leaders on the other side busy placing their nighbours' children in the line of our fire.

When the map of Israel is displayed, as it very occasionally is, on television news screens, it's often out of context. It fills the screen leading anyone watching to conclude that Israel is the size of, say, Texas. In reality Israel is smaller than New Jersey. (Australian readers: please click here.) And even so-called primitive missiles pointed in our direction - like the one that blew up an apartment building this morning - can reach all parts of this little country. I could try to make the case for why a society living under this sort of constant threat would want to have an effective air force and a strong deterrent capability. But the message would be lost because no one's paying attention to deterrents today. War fever has the Arabs firmly in its grip.

The result is that, presumably for good cause, the authorities have raised the terror alert level throughout Israel this morning. It's now just one notch below the maximum. There are no ordinary TV programs - just direct coverage from the fronts (north, south, center, everywhere), and military reserves units are busy sending messages to families throughout the country saying "we need your sons". The local financial markets are in turmoil too - no good news there. And the bed-and-breakfasts throughout the north are coping with a wave of cancellations.

In the face of the superficial and dangerous pseudo-military analysis that seems to be everywhere this morning, here's a voice that gets beneath the surface to some painful truths.